Market Information

Many thought that the President’s speech last night might hold an announcement regarding a winding down of the Iran war and ag markets reacted negatively on that thought. Somewhat the opposite happened as he recounted successes while outlining escalation versus wind down.

On Monday, USDA will release its first Crop Progress Report and on Thursday the April WASDE will be released. The WASDE will include a look at the 26/27 balance sheet. It should show a falling corn carryout and a small increase in soybean carryout.

Overnight the energy markets moved higher, ag contracts higher, equities lower. Note the Brent contract at 118 just below the contract high at 119.40. the WTI contract is trading at 107, below its high at 113.40.

Yesterday’s move lower was damaging mostly to corn and wheat. The May corn contract is poised to make a new bearish cross of the 10/20-day moving averages near Fibonacci support (now resistance) at 460. Yesterdays low at 448 ½ was just above 200-day moving average at 447. 447 now becomes the most important number. A move below 447 set us up for a larger move lower. Set sell stops at 447.

The soy complex as a whole, fared much better than the other ag contracts that we follow, likely supported by the recent EPA guidelines on biofuels. May soybeans continue to pace sideways above Fibonacci support at 1154. Daily chart support is 1165, resistance is 1178.

Below is the monthly soy oil chart. Soy oil will be the driver for the soybean contract into the near future. Note the chart gap higher created between the February and March at around 62 cents, that could be a bearish drag at some time but no signaling that we are going lower as of yet. For the soybean grower think soy oil higher, soybeans higher.

December corn was damaged on yesterday’s move but the drop stopped just above Fibonacci support at 475. The contract is trading higher this morning. The 10/20-day moving averages are poised to form a bearish cross. Daily chart support is 475, resistance is 484.

November soybeans are tracking its 10 and 20-day moving averages higher. Daily chart support is 1142. Targets remain 1180, 1191, 1203.

The Wheat contracts took a hit yesterday but did manage to stop going lower near support levels and are correcting higher this morning. Continue to target 645 in the July contract to advance sales.