Market Information

The lack of export news, the unwinding of the nearly historic spec short in corn has culminated in the contract testing its life of contract low at 428 overnight.

A close below 428 offers risk to trade lower therefor I’ve drawn in the Fibonacci extensions with possible downside projections below. There is support from the monthly chart at 430, scroll down.

430 on the monthly chart represents a 50% retracement of the current long-term range that we are now trading in from 360 to 500. It is very common to see a sector make a 50% retracement of a previous move. Therefore, this move to the 430 area is an anticipated move. From this point, however, values must stop going lower from here in order to avoid what has happened for the past two year, a move to the bottom end of the range at 360. The 10/20-month moving averages have formed a bearish cross at 439 .

The singular saving grace in the ag contract sector is soybean oil trading nearly 80 cents this week. Note below its 20-year high was 91.40 in April of 2022. Soy oil because of the expanded RVO from EPA is keeping soybean values in the top third of their current contract’s trading range and offers good value to advance sales.