Market Information

With just one week remaining until USDA releases its Final Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on June 30, traders are closely watching for clues on 2025 crop size and available supplies. Current trade estimates generally call for slightly higher corn acreage and slightly lower soybean acreage than USDA’s March planting intentions report. While expectations vary, history shows that surprises in either acreage or stocks can produce significant market volatility.

Just how significant can that volatility be?

Day of report changes:

Dec Corn 🌽

🔴 2025: -1.50
🔴 2024: -13
🔴 2023: -33.75
🔴 2022: -34
🟢 2021: +40
🟢 2020: +15.75
🔴 2019: -19.50
🟢 2018: +5.25
🟢 2017: +12
🔴 2016: -11.75
🟢 2015: +29.25
🔴 2014: -22
🔴 2013: -27.50
🟢 2012: +2.50
🔴 2011: -30
🟢 2010: +29.50
🔴 2009: -30
🔴 2008: -30
🔴 2007: -7.50
🟢 2006: +5.75

Average Move: +/- 20 cents

In the last decade, corn has moved less than 10 cents on report day only twice, with several near-limit moves occurring over the years.

With the potential for significant price movement surrounding this report, now may be a good time to review your marketing plan, make an incremental sale, or have target orders working in the market. Knowing your numbers and having a plan in place before June 30 can help remove emotion from what is often one of the most volatile trading days of the year.

The corn contracts that we follow are flirting with taking out the life of contract lows just established 9 sessions ago.

July corn traded to 405 ¾ yesterday but managed to close at 407, just a penny above the contract low at 406. Overnight, the contract traded to 403 ¾ but has recovered to 406 ¾ as I write this. A close below 406 offers risk to open up a new leg lower. in my opinion, it would be premature to begin a new bearish leg until after we see the data from next week’s USDAs reports.

July soybeans continue to track above Fibonacci support at 1103 and tracking just below its 10-day moving average at 1118. The 10-dma has flattened out offering the chance that the 10 and 20-dma could be heading into a bullish cross. The contract is oversold.

December corn is also threating a negative close below current lie of contract low at 434. The contract managed a close at 434 ¾ yesterday after trading to 433 ½. It traded to 431 ½ overnight but is trading at 435 currently. I am not anticipating the beginning of a new leg lower until we get the USDA data out of the way on Tuesday.

November soybeans is tracking its 10-day moving average at 1139 with major support at its 200-day moving average at 1117. We need to digest the USDA data next Tuesday in order to define the trade going into the growing season.

July wheat is close to scoring a bullish 10/20-day moving average cross. Major support at the 200-day moving average, 577.