Opening Calls – August 17, 2018 at 8:08AM
Wheat was firmer in the overnight on support from a rally in European milling wheat. July ’19 Chicago wheat traded as high as 604’4, but has retreated back to 590 around 8am. Corn is up just ½ cent, and beans are down 3.
Charts of the Day – July 26, 2018
Afternoon Market Commentary – August 17, 2018
by: Chris Betz
|Old Crop (futures month, change, settle price)||CU8||1’0||364’2||SU8||4’0||881’4||WU8||18’2||560’4|
|New Crop(futures month, change, settle price)||CZ8||1’0||378’6||SX8||4’2||892’6||WN9||8’2||596’6|
Wheat was the story of the day closing up 18 cents on the September contract on reports that Russia plans to limit exports. Business that would be lapped up by the U.S. and EU. The reports have not been confirmed, but nevertheless, supportive for wheat trade heading into the weekend. The Dec Chicago contract has support at the 20 day moving average at 567’5, then the 50% retracement of the recent year high to July low.
No fresh news on corn left quietly sideways trade to close out the week. The Sep contract continues to track the 20 day moving average. Resistance is the recent high at 374’2. Suport is the 40 day at 358’2, then the contract low at 337’2.
Soybeans ran out of bullishness Friday from news Thursday that Chinese officials are set to travel to the U.S. to re-open low level trade talks. The Sep contract closed down 4 cents, but was down as much as 14 cents Friday. Suppose is the 40 day at 879’1. Resistance is around 911, then the 100 day moving average at 957’3.
In outside markets, the USD is lower but hanging above the 96.0 mark. Energies are mixed with crude turning higher the second half of the week, and ethanol staying lower. The DJIA is up 135 points.
Technical Thoughts – August 9, 2018
By: Ken Lake
I thought I would start this week with the market’s bright spot: wheat! It has been a very long while since I’ve been able to state that but wheat values are drawing a lot of attention currently and deservedly so. In the attached chart, note that the soybean:wheat ratio is now at 1.58:1, a nearly 8 year low! We could very well see soybean acres switched to wheat. We will certainly see an increase in wheat acres. But producers should use caution as world stocks, while contracting, are still burdensome. Producers should begin to hedge their 2019 crop now.
Support for September wheat is 534, target the contract high of 612. Support for the July 2019 contract is 580. Target 610, 653.
Support in the September corn contract is 369 target 379. Support in the December contract is 381. Target 390 and 399.