Charts of the Day – April 19, 2024

Chicago Wheat

Market Commentary – April 19, 2024

by: Chris Betz

Corn Soybean Wheat
Old Crop (futures month, change, settle price) CK4 6’6 433’4 SK4 16’2 1150’4 WK4 13’4 550’2
New Crop (futures month, change, settle price) CZ4 6’2 466’2 SX4 11’6 1161’0 WN4 13’6 566’6

Technical Thoughts – April 18, 2024

By: Ken Lake

The planting progress report this week showed corn and soybean seedings were a couple of percentage points ahead of a 5-year average, but both remain in single digits, all-in-all, inconsequential number but enough to weaken these markets. The trade, at times, become concerned over the comparative to the 5-year averages until farmers manage to seed 50% of the crop. Once 50% of the crop is in the ground, focus turns to growing season weather. We likely have a couple more weeks until that 50% benchmark is reached.

It is clear that the short-covering rally that began March 1st is over leaving us wondering if managed money will ever cover and build a long position into the pollination season. It would be unusual for the speculator not to cover and go long but these markets have been trading counter to usual convention for two years now.

With that notion, I’ve laid out in the following corn and soybean charts the likely downside projections on a further weakness. Upside projections cannot be offered until the overhead resistance points (the 10,20,50-day moving averages) have been overcome. The trend is lower, I have to go with the trend.

May soybeans have support at the life of contract low at 1128. If 1128 is taken out the downside projections are 1084, 1071, 1058. A move to 1014 would complete the downside move.

November soybeans are more vulnerable to a break lower if 1122 is breached. If the contract tests 1122 and holds then that level becomes a significant support value. On a break lower at 1122 the downside counts become 1062, 1043, 1024, 964. 964 is the life of contract low. Sell stops should be 1122. Daily chart resistance remains 1172.

May corn seems destined to test its life of contract low at 408. If 408 is breached the downside targets are 368, 355, 344, 303. 303 would complete the extension.

December corn has support at 444, the previous low. If 444 is reached then the downside targets become 434, 425, 395. 395 is the life of contact low. If farmers do not exceed anticipated seedings of 90 million acres. 395 should offer good support.

I am not expecting extensions lower in wheat but the life of contract lows in both May and July wheat are in play. Lower US seedings, some current weather issues in Europe should help stabilize vales above the 20-year average, 553.

Fertilizer Update – April 15, 2024

By: John Ezinga

The situation in the Middle East have the markets a little choppy.

Urea is looking for a floor and if you have followed the charts lately you can see it was due a correction.

See below….urea was in the red last week and 28% was in the neutral zone. They usually run together so having urea come down makes sense.

AMS is finding more demand every year. Sulfur is a key component that does not come free in the rain anymore.

I think we could see a large shift in acres if the weather is not good for corn planting. Economics favor soy plantings so if planting conditions waver at all the shift will be ON!